I saw this tweet by satire account @Stats_Canada:
I tweeted back:
Tim Horton’s (@TimHortons) always advertises the best odds of winning and they are 1 in 6. How do they know that? As it’s is a seeded contest, it’s just a matter of math. Total number of cups printed for the promotion divided against the number of prizes. Simple. They even outline them in the full rules.
First they outline the number of cups printed and the distribution of those cups between specific regions across North America.
3. A total of 260,959,840 contest cups have been produced for this contest. These will be available for distribution through to April 26, 2013 or while supplies last, whichever occurs first. It is anticipated, based on estimated distribution that contest cups will be distributed within 6 regions as follows:
Then they outline the prizes available across North America followed by prize distribution:
5. Estimated distribution of “winning” contest tabs for the prizes described in Rule 4 (A, B, C, D) by region, will be as set out below. Note: “Regions” are defined in Rule 3. Distribution of prizes within the Region is random.
And finally, the official odds:
8. At the outset: the overall approximate odds in Canada of being eligible to win one of Thirty-Eight 2013 Toyota RAV4 vehicles are 1 in 6,546,585; the overall approximate odds in the U.S. of being eligible to win one of Two 2013 Toyota RAV4 vehicles are 1 in 6,094,800. Across North America, the overall approximate odds of being eligible to win one of One Hundred $5,000 MasterCard Prepaid Cards are 1 in 2,609,598; the overall approximate odds of being eligible to win one of One Thousand Napoleon Gourmet Grills are 1 in 260,960; the overall approximate odds of being eligible to win one of Twenty-five Thousand $100 Tim Cards are 1 in 10,438; the overall approximate odds of being eligible to win a food prize are 1 in 6.
Do you participate in the annual Roll Up The Rim contest? If so, what is the best prize you have ever won? What have you won this year?